The writs have been dropped for four more by-elections.
In Toronto Centre, former Ontario Premier Bob Rae is the odds-on favourite to replace retired MP Bill Graham when voters there go to the polls on March 17. Several weeks ago, the Conservatives fired their candidate, Mark Warner, because he ... well, they never really said why. It doesn't much matter: This district, which Bob Rae calls "the heart of Canada", includes the tony Toronto neighbourhood of Rosedale and is about as safe as it gets for Liberals.
Voters will also select a new MP in the Saskatchewan riding of Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River where rookie Liberal MP Gary Merasty decided within a year to pack it in. Political renegade/oddball David Orchard wants to contest this seat for the Liberals but leader Stephane Dion apparently has other ideas. Merasty won it in 2006 in a close vote that incumbent Conservative Jeremy Harrison (now a member of the provincial legislature) contested to no avail.
In Vancouver Quadra, former Liberal minister Stephen Owen is also retiring. Had floor-crosser David Emerson run in this riding as a Conservative, he might have won here! It's a lot more upscale than Emerson's current riding of Vancouver Kingsway. For that reason, I'd say this is the seat that has the greatest chance of change. It's the Liberal's to lose but this is B.C., after all, and weird stuff happens.
Finally, former Liberal cabinet minister Jim Peterson quit the House the day after his contemporary and friend Bill Graham did. And, just as with Graham's old seat in Toronto, look for this one to stay Liberal with a victory by another former contestant for the leadership that Dion won: Martha Hall Findlay -- see you in the House this spring along with Bob Rae. The Conservative candidate Maureen Harquail will give it her best, no doubt, but Willowdale is only slightly less safe than Toronto Centre for Liberals.