Lawrence Leduc is a professor in the political science department at the University of Toronto. He was one of several I called up today to get their observations about Monday's byelection results.

Here's an excerpt of the note he was generous enough to send my way:

Three things seem to stand out. Given that by-elections are generally bad news for governing parties, the Conservatives did rather well. That may not say much of anything about a future general election, but it does run against the most common by-election pattern.
Second, the slippage of the Bloc in a riding that has been fairly reliable in the past may signal something. I have been expecting Bloc voting strength to erode for a long time now. But it never has. This could be an indication that the Bloc may have difficulty holding on to some of its long standing sources of support. However, the same caution applies. By-elections are not all that realiabe as indicators of longer term trends.
Finally, I am a bit surprised that other parties didn't seem to make any impact in these elections. By-elections are a natural stalking ground for Green parties, for example. But they seemed to be almost invisible this time. Wonder why. Didn't look like they even made an effort. Where was Elizabeth May over the past few weeks?