CIBC economist Benjamin Tal releases his homemade index of metropolitan economic activity.[PDF] Tal takes nine macroeconomic variables like employment growth, housing activity, bankruptcy rates and so on and comes up with an index ranking for the 25 largest metropolitan areas in the country.
As Tal cautions, this approach allows econometricians to track the relative economic strength of various cities and not the absolute strength. For example, Edmonton, Calgary, and Vancouver (ranked 9, 12, and 13) show worse in this latest index, an indication, Tal says, of weakening economic momentum in Western Canada. And yet, as he notes, absolute levels of activity in those cities remain above average.
Regina and Saskatoon placed 1 and 4 on the list, a sign of Saskatchewan's new title as economic wunderkid among the provinces. Both cities have the highest population growth right now in Canada, Regina's employment growth is second only to St. John's and it has the lowest unemployment rate in the country at 4 per cent.
Toronto ranks second on the list but, as a sign of problems in the rest of the province, three other Ontario cities rank dead last on the list. Thunder Bay is in the 25 spot, Windsor is 24, and St. Catharines-NIagara in is 23. London is 19 on the list. Chalk the declines in those cities up to declines in forestry, autos, autos, and autos respectively.
St. John's is at number three and Halifax is at number 5 on this list of cities with economic momentum. St. John 's, Tal notes, has the lowest business bankruptcy rate in the country.
