I would still be pretty surprised if Gloria Kovach does win (I live in Guelph). Although she's got a pretty good reputation as a hard worker, it seems like her campaign has really not done much to campaign here. For a while (during the by-election that wasn't) we got a lot of campaign ads from her, but after numerous letters to the editorial page as well as a few pieces in the newpapers about the negativity of the ads they just stopped. I'm not sure what their door-to-door has been like in other parts of Guelph, but I haven't talked to anyone who actually has spoken to a campaign worker in Guelph yet (although I'm sure they exist). She hasn't bothered to attend some of the all-candidates meetings, and the lack of support from the Conservative govt. has been very apparent, although apparently Harper did make it to Guelph yesterday. Couple all of those things with a feeling that "if she doesn't win, she'll stay in council", a fairly strong swell of resentment against the Federal Conservatives for getting rid of our old PC candidate with no explanation, and a pretty big groundswell for the Greens, and I'd be extremely surprised if she won. The only polls that I've seen that have the Conservatives taking Guelph have all been done by Conservatives, haven't they? It's going to be interesting, to say the least. I'm not a fan of the Conservatives, but I also don't have any doubt that if Ms. Kovach wins she'd do a great job as M.P. We seem to be very lucky this year that no matter who wins, we are going to get a good M.P.- that's certainly not always the case.